Reducing CO2 Emissions, Saving Millions, and Transforming Lives in Kenya Through Sustainable Agriculture

Background:

Our solution targets smallholder farmers in rural Africa (B2C) and youth-led SMEs in the agriculture sector (B2B). Smallholder farmers need affordable, sustainable agricultural inputs and support for transitioning to regenerative farming. They prioritize increasing yields, reducing costs, and enhancing soil health. 

Youth-led SMEs require training in entrepreneurship and access to organic waste for BSF farming. They prioritize business growth, creating employment opportunities, and contributing to sustainable agriculture and waste management practices.

We decided to do the math to show the impact we see our work having over the next 5 years, with the assumption that we continue to scale our work. Our goal is to serve at least 5,000 farmers and 500 Youth-Led entreprises in the next 5 years.

Assumptions:

1. Each ton of organic waste diverted from landfills can save approximately 0.6 tons of CO2 equivalent emissions (World Bank, 2018).
2. Producing one ton of nitrogen fertilizer emits approximately 6.7 tons of CO2 equivalent (International Fertilizer Association, 2015).
3. The average farm size in Kenya is 0.53 hectares (FAO, 2015).
4. Chemical fertilizers cost KES 7,500 per 50kg bag, with an average usage of 4 bags per acre annually (African Fertilizer and Agribusiness Partnership, 2020).

Detailed Justification for Impact Numbers

1. CO2 Emissions Savings:

Organic Waste Diversion:

According to the World Bank (2018), each ton of organic waste diverted from landfills can save approximately 0.6 tons of CO2 equivalent emissions. Therefore, if we achieve our target of diverting 15,000 tons of organic waste annually, the CO2 savings are:

  Over the next 5 years, the total CO2 savings are:

     

Reduction in Chemical Fertilizer Use:

   - The International Fertilizer Association (2015) states that producing one ton of nitrogen fertilizer emits approximately 6.7 tons of CO2 equivalent.

   - By replacing 1,000 tons of synthetic fertilizers annually with organic alternatives, the CO2 savings are:

    

   - Over five years, the total CO2 savings are:

     

Therefore, the total CO2 savings:

Rounded down for conservative estimation to 50,000 tons of CO2 over five years.

2. Lives Impacted

Smallholder Farmers:

At Zaida, our training and support initiatives aim to reach 5,000 smallholder farmers over the next five years. Each farmer can potentially improve their yield and income through better practices and inputs.

Youth Employment:

Our training programs and waste management initiatives will empower 500 youth to start their own BSF farming and organic waste processing businesses. Over time, these youth-led businesses will also engage more community members, indirectly affecting more lives.

The total lives impacted directly and indirectly:

Rounded down for conservative estimation to 5,000 lives impacted.

3. Financial Savings

Fertilizer Cost Savings:

Currently, the cost of chemical fertilizers in Kenya is KES 7,500 per 50kg bag. If the average smallholder farmer uses 4 bags per acre annually (200kg) (African Fertilizer and Agribusiness Partnership, 2020), this translates to KES 30,000 per acre annually. The average farm size in Kenya is 0.53 hectares (FAO, 2015), approximately 1.31 acres. Therefore, the cost per farm annually is:

Now, assuming each of the 5,000 farmers cultivates 1.31 acres, the total cost is:

     

Organic Fertilizer Cost:

Organic fertilizers can cost upto 50% less than synthetic fertilizers. Thus, the annual cost per acre for organic fertilizer is:

     

   - Total annual cost for 5,000 farmers using organic fertilizers:

     

Total Savings Over Five Years:     

Over five years, total savings are:    

Converted to USD using the exchange rate of 1 USD = 143.5 KES (Central Bank of Kenya, 2024):

Rounded down for conservative estimation to $3.4 million over the next five years.

Citations

African Fertilizer and Agribusiness Partnership. (2020). Fertilizer Use in Kenya. Retrieved from [AFAP](https://afap-partnership.org/market-intelligence/fertilizer-use-in-kenya/)

Central Bank of Kenya. (2024, July 4). Exchange Rates. Retrieved from [Central Bank of Kenya](https://www.centralbank.go.ke/rates/exchange-rates/)

Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2015). Family Farming Data Portrait: Farm Size. Retrieved from [FAO](https://www.fao.org/family-farming/data-sources/dataportrait/farm-size/en/)

International Fertilizer Association. (2015). Fertilizer Production and the Environment. Retrieved from [IFA](https://www.fertilizer.org/Public/About_Fertilizers/Fertilizer_Production_and_Environment/Public/About_Fertilizers/Fertilizer_Production_and_the_Environment.aspx)

World Bank. (2018). What a Waste 2.0: A Global Snapshot of Solid Waste Management to 2050. Retrieved from [World Bank](https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/30317)